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Simulark / Society twin

One change.
Many realities.

A society is people, institutions, businesses and information - connected. We are developing a society twin to explore how a change can travel through those relationships, and why different groups experience it differently.

SOCIETY TWIN / RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT
Society twin / an interconnected viewResearch concept · illustrative connections
02 / Different systems. Shared consequences.
Connections across layers
03 / Introduce a change

Same society. A different situation.

Evidence / Connected context

A society has more than one layer.

People participate in several systems at once. A change in a service can become a conversation, a practical obstacle, or a cost for an employer.

A question to investigate

Where could a change travel - and who might experience it differently?

Evidence → relationships → alternative scenarios
How to read this viewA visual explanation of the society-twin research direction, not a live feed or a map of measured relationships. Selecting an event traces a possible mechanism; it does not calculate a forecast. Population and institutional work underpin the research; media-agent and business-agent integration remain development tracks.
Now isolate one mechanism

They heard you.
Can they act?

A society twin asks a broad question. A useful experiment starts with something specific. Below, a deliberately small service-access model separates hearing about a change from being able to act on it.

Change the message. Add practical help. Compare the same fictional applicants over 30 days.

A fictional service / 300 applicants / 30 days
Not yet awareAware, not completeComplete → right
Day 30
Day 30 outcome / compared with online-only baseline
Applications completed-/ 300
Waiting for practical help-people
Gap between groups-pts
Illustration, not a forecastThe five groups have equal sizes for comparison. Their characteristics, awareness rates and assistance needs are invented. They do not represent a measured population.
Completion is not the same as awareness

Change the message.
Or change
the service.

A communication problem and an access problem need different responses. In this model, the gap closes only when the conditions for participation change.

Day 30 / completion by group
Open the model notebook Assumptions & limits

What is calculated

  • 300 fictional applicants, 60 in each group. Each has a fixed draw for ability to complete independently and a 1-5 day application delay.
  • Assumed independent completion ability: 94%, 73%, 49%, 27%, 12%, in the displayed group order.
  • Daily awareness probabilities: 13%, 7.5%, 5.8%, 6.5%, 8.2%. Clearer messaging multiplies these by 1.65.
  • Within-group completed applications add to awareness: previous completion fraction × 0.11. The rows show applicant states, not a measured social network.
  • Applicants needing assistance enter a first-in, first-out queue. Daily capacity determines how many complete.
  • The gap is the difference between the highest and lowest group completion rates, in percentage points.

What this does not establish

This is a service-access model, not a validated model of public opinion, political support or legal effects. Its assumptions deliberately isolate communication from practical access. It does not estimate real demand, staffing cost or individual behaviour.

Simulark’s policy research explores evidence-grounded group scenarios, with Moldova as the first application context. A real pilot needs reviewed group definitions, appropriate evidence, an accountable partner and human review.

From this example to a real case

A specific proposal.
A scoped pilot.

We work with NGOs, public bodies and research partners to explore alternatives while decisions are still open. Communication testing is the first pilot offer; wider policy and legal effects are development tracks scoped with relevant experts.

The work is at group level. It does not profile individuals, support political targeting or claim to predict what people will do.

NextA real case, together

What’s about
to change?

A building. A service. A policy.
Tell us what is changing, who it affects, and which decision is still open.

Let’s discuss your case

ilya@simulark.net
Office: Kadijk 4, Groningen, Netherlands